Banking Off of Low-Build Winds: “Tri”-ing to Project PJM Tier I Fundamentals

Ali Shajrawi, Liam Brooks Market Research Briefs

The PJM Tier I market tested its five-year price lows this past October before mounting a slow but impressive rebound through the first quarter of 2018. While there have been hiccups over the course of this relative recovery, the overall trajectory has been decidedly positive as underlying market fundamentals seem to making a case for forward price strength. Between low installation rates for new qualifying wind facilities, increasing RPS requirements, and ambitious clean energy legislation proposed across a number of states, there is reason to expect tightening supply/demand dynamics on the horizon. The following report details the drivers behind the recent PJM Tier I price resilience and the arguments for potential future appreciation.

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