New Jersey Delta Blues

Ali Shajrawi, Liam Brooks Market Research Briefs

New Jersey SRECs have experienced steady pricing pressure since upwards revisions on previously reported monthly installation rates were first announced in July 2016. Uncertainty of build rate revisions and growing concern of large surplus, price trajectory for the most liquid of the forward curve has been largely negative.

New Jersey SREC Market Report

Ali Shajrawi Market Research Briefs

A rising tide around the Basic Generation Service (BGS) Auction has been lifting all New Jersey SREC vintages, with prices for the forward three years of the curve (EY2017, EY2018, and EY2019) erasing most of their losses from November’s market-wide sell-off.

New Jersey SREC Market Update: NJ Puts on Its New Year’s Rally cap

Ali Shajrawi Market Research Briefs

New Jersey SREC pricing has reached four-year highs, recording levels not seen since December 2011. Breaking through what appeared to be 2015’s $250 resistance level in early November, front-of-the-curve pricing and liquidity have strengthened ostensibly through the end of the year and start of 2016. The first week of January saw EY2016 and EY2017 SRECs trade north of $290 before settling in the $285 context by the week’s end. In light of the considerable surplus of SRECs in circulation, this price rally seems to render the market paradoxical.

New Jersey SREC Market Update: No Summer Love for Solar Supply

Ali Shajrawi Market Research Briefs

Behind-The-Meter (BTM) installations continued to drive forward the New Jersey solar market, adding approximately 13 MW last month. July had no Direct Grid- Supply completions, contrary to NJCEP’s estimates of around 13 large-scale projects to be in service by July. New Jersey SREC levels experienced an uptick in price volatility in the first two months of Q3. RY 2015 and RY 2016 prices started the quarter in the mid-$230 area but ultimately traded in a range as wide as $20 since the start of July.

New Jersey SREC Market Update: Q2 Supply Blues & The Great 2015 Rally

Ali Shajrawi Market Research Briefs

Grid-Supply projects in the development pipeline have finally impacted the market bringing last month’s new solar build number up to approximately 14.4 MW. June had two new Direct Grid Supply projects with total capacity of 5.86 MW – compared to only one Grid Supply project since February, previously the only Grid Supply project YTD. With relatively anemic total build numbers for Q2, New Jersey SREC prices have shown an expected resilience in the front end of the curve from early spring through mid-summer.

New Jersey SRECs: BGS & Running of the Bulls

Karbone Market Research Briefs

NJ SREC pricing has appreciated to levels not witnessed since Q1 2012. Breaking past the $200/SREC threshold in the last weeks, forward vintage pricing and liquidity have strengthened ostensibly in advance of the state’s focal Basic Generation Service (BGS) Auction. With the Auction still over two months away however, questions remain as to how high the price rally will reach, and what other forces could be behind it.

New Jersey SRECs Q2 Wrap up & Q3 Outlook

Karbone Market Research Briefs

New Jersey SREC prices held steady throughout Q2 after rallying back from a post-BGS dip in the last week of Q1. RY 14-16 vintage values started Q2 in April at $180 and climbed to the $188 range by the end of May before settling back around $182 at the end of Q2 in June. With the start of Q3 however, prices have begun to fall off, with value for RY 14-16 vintages dropping to the mid-$160s range as of mid-July.

NJ SREC Market Update

Karbone Market Research Briefs

Large projects in the development pipeline have finally impacted the market as preliminary February installation numbers were estimated at 44.1 MW. Large-scale projects accounted for 32.6 MW of this volume and included a 10 MW Subsection Q project that had reached commercial operation in Q4 2013 and two behind-the-meter projects, one at 13.1 MW and another at 9.5 MW.