The Illinois Power Agency (IPA) this month filed a final version of its Long-Term Renewable Resources Procurement Plan, building on a proposal of the plan released last October. This plan introduces a number of changes to the IL Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS), setting ambitious goals and measures to advance the development of new renewable resources in the state.
Last December, the Illinois state legislature passed SB 2814 concerning the state’s Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) program revisions, aiming to promote in-state solar energy project development. Passed as the Future Energy Jobs Bill, SB 2814 seeks to jump start solar development in the state by expanding the existing RPS requirements to include a numerical target to procure RECs from in-state sited solar facilities.
In response to this legislative change, the Illinois Power Authority (IPA) released the highly anticipated long-term procurement plan last September.
In the following research report, Karbone explores the most important changes proposed in the filed plan.
New Jersey SRECs have experienced steady pricing pressure since upwards revisions on previously reported monthly installation rates were first announced in July 2016. Uncertainty of build rate revisions and growing concern of large surplus, price trajectory for the most liquid of the forward curve has been largely negative.
On February 6, 2017, Pennsylvania lawmakers introduced Senate Bill 291 concerning Alternative Energy Portfolio Standard (AEPS) revisions that aimed at promoting and advancing in-state solar energy project development. As introduced, the proposal seeks to jump-start solar development in the state by restricting eligibility under the AEPS to PA-sited only facilities and expanding the solar requirements to stimulate more build. Senate Bill 291 aims to boost the current solar AEPS requirements to 1.5% by 2023 from the current mandate of 0.5% by 2021.
New Jersey SREC pricing has reached four-year highs, recording levels not seen since December 2011. Breaking through what appeared to be 2015’s $250 resistance level in early November, front-of-the-curve pricing and liquidity have strengthened ostensibly through the end of the year and start of 2016. The first week of January saw EY2016 and EY2017 SRECs trade north of $290 before settling in the $285 context by the week’s end. In light of the considerable surplus of SRECs in circulation, this price rally seems to render the market paradoxical.
To ensure the reliability of the Mid-Atlantic grid, earlier this year PJM instituted the Capacity Performance (CP) plan. This created a regime with higher capacity revenue expectations, accompanied by more rigorous plant performance criteria and greater penalty payments. Given the 2018/2019 Base Residual Auction (BRA) results, how well has the CP achieved its goals? Can similar results be expected in future auctions? What are the broader market implications from the CP program change? In the quiet between the storm of PJM auctions this summer and end of year EFOR-D assessments, Karbone’s Research Group and Power Market Brokerage Desk have taken the opportunity to explore these considerations below.
The strength in this spring’s New Jersey SRECs rally has pushed spot prices to their three-and-a-half-year high. Since post-BGS lows of $190, the front of the SREC curve has marched to the high $230s range following the June 9th EDC Auction and monthly solar installation data release for May.
NJ SREC pricing has appreciated to levels not witnessed since Q1 2012. Breaking past the $200/SREC threshold in the last weeks, forward vintage pricing and liquidity have strengthened ostensibly in advance of the state’s focal Basic Generation Service (BGS) Auction. With the Auction still over two months away however, questions remain as to how high the price rally will reach, and what other forces could be behind it.
MISO Capacity pricing has rallied across the board in bilateral markets as a combination of coal retirements and ISO exports threaten capacity deficits by ~2016. In anticipation of these impending shortages, bilateral capacity forward pricing in select zones has already appreciated to levels at or near those in PJM. Karbone expects this trend to continue in the short and mid-term. The following research brief analyzes the primary drivers of this market behavior and outlines potential directional movements.
New Jersey SREC prices held steady throughout Q2 after rallying back from a post-BGS dip in the last week of Q1. RY 14-16 vintage values started Q2 in April at $180 and climbed to the $188 range by the end of May before settling back around $182 at the end of Q2 in June. With the start of Q3 however, prices have begun to fall off, with value for RY 14-16 vintages dropping to the mid-$160s range as of mid-July.