Pennsylvania Officially Closes Border

Ali Shajrawi, Liam Brooks Market Research Briefs

On April 19, the Pennsylvania PUC approved a Final Implementation Order for HB118, formally restricting the qualifications of out-of-state solar systems to meet in-state solar compliance requirements, with an exception for any contracted generation that predated the legislation, effective October 2017.

Greenlight for Renewable Incentives in Illinois

Ali Shajrawi, Liam Brooks Market Research Briefs

On April 3, the Illinois Commerce Commission (ICC) approved a final order that addresses several key issues of how the State will meet its ambitious renewable goals under the Long Term Procurement Plan (LTPP). The attached research brief provides an overview of the changes in the Final Order and their implications.

Banking Off of Low-Build Winds: “Tri”-ing to Project PJM Tier I Fundamentals

Ali Shajrawi, Liam Brooks Market Research Briefs

The PJM Tier I market tested its five-year price lows this past October before mounting a slow but impressive rebound through the first quarter of 2018. While there have been hiccups over the course of this relative recovery, the overall trajectory has been decidedly positive as underlying market fundamentals seem to making a case for forward price strength. Between low installation rates for new qualifying wind facilities, increasing RPS requirements, and ambitious clean energy legislation proposed across a number of states, there is reason to expect tightening supply/demand dynamics on the horizon. The following report details the drivers behind the recent PJM Tier I price resilience and the arguments for potential future appreciation.

Jersey Hold’em: Solar Bill Plays Same Hand After Christie’s Pocket Veto

Ali Shajrawi, Liam Brooks Market Research Briefs

The Illinois Power Agency (IPA) this month filed a final version of its Long-Term Renewable Resources Procurement Plan, building on a proposal of the plan released last October. This plan introduces a number of changes to the IL Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS), setting ambitious goals and measures to advance the development of new renewable resources in the state.

Tailwinds in Illinois?

Ali Shajrawi, Liam Brooks Market Research Briefs

The Illinois Power Agency (IPA) this month filed a final version of its Long-Term Renewable Resources Procurement Plan, building on a proposal of the plan released last October. This plan introduces a number of changes to the IL Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS), setting ambitious goals and measures to advance the development of new renewable resources in the state.

A Bright Future for Solar in Illinois?

Ali Shajrawi, Liam Brooks Market Research Briefs

Last December, the Illinois state legislature passed SB 2814 concerning the state’s Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) program revisions, aiming to promote in-state solar energy project development. Passed as the Future Energy Jobs Bill, SB 2814 seeks to jump start solar development in the state by expanding the existing RPS requirements to include a numerical target to procure RECs from in-state sited solar facilities.

In response to this legislative change, the Illinois Power Authority (IPA) released the highly anticipated long-term procurement plan last September.

In the following research report, Karbone explores the most important changes proposed in the filed plan.

New Jersey Delta Blues

Ali Shajrawi, Liam Brooks Market Research Briefs

New Jersey SRECs have experienced steady pricing pressure since upwards revisions on previously reported monthly installation rates were first announced in July 2016. Uncertainty of build rate revisions and growing concern of large surplus, price trajectory for the most liquid of the forward curve has been largely negative.

It’s Not Always Sunny in Pennsylvania?

Ali Shajrawi, Liam Brooks Market Research Briefs

On February 6, 2017, Pennsylvania lawmakers introduced Senate Bill 291 concerning Alternative Energy Portfolio Standard (AEPS) revisions that aimed at promoting and advancing in-state solar energy project development. As introduced, the proposal seeks to jump-start solar development in the state by restricting eligibility under the AEPS to PA-sited only facilities and expanding the solar requirements to stimulate more build. Senate Bill 291 aims to boost the current solar AEPS requirements to 1.5% by 2023 from the current mandate of 0.5% by 2021.

New Jersey SREC Market Update: NJ Puts on Its New Year’s Rally cap

Ali Shajrawi Market Research Briefs

New Jersey SREC pricing has reached four-year highs, recording levels not seen since December 2011. Breaking through what appeared to be 2015’s $250 resistance level in early November, front-of-the-curve pricing and liquidity have strengthened ostensibly through the end of the year and start of 2016. The first week of January saw EY2016 and EY2017 SRECs trade north of $290 before settling in the $285 context by the week’s end. In light of the considerable surplus of SRECs in circulation, this price rally seems to render the market paradoxical.

PJM Capacity Performance: You mad, BRA?

Ali Shajrawi Market Research Briefs

To ensure the reliability of the Mid-Atlantic grid, earlier this year PJM instituted the Capacity Performance (CP) plan. This created a regime with higher capacity revenue expectations, accompanied by more rigorous plant performance criteria and greater penalty payments. Given the 2018/2019 Base Residual Auction (BRA) results, how well has the CP achieved its goals? Can similar results be expected in future auctions? What are the broader market implications from the CP program change? In the quiet between the storm of PJM auctions this summer and end of year EFOR-D assessments, Karbone’s Research Group and Power Market Brokerage Desk have taken the opportunity to explore these considerations below.