Karbone Corporate PPA Research

Ali Shajrawi, Jonathan Burnston, Alexandra Wineholt In-depth Custom Research

The growing demand for renewable energy by corporate off-takers is fundamentally reshaping electric power sales in the United States. Over the past 3 years, approximately 7.8 GW of wind and solar power were contracted through non-utility corporate power purchase agreements (CPPAs). This trend is gathering pace with many more corporates announcing sustainability goals to procure most (and for some, 100%) of their current and forward electricity needs from renewable resources.

Oregon Trailing: New Name, Same Game

Ali Shajrawi, Vickie Pan Market Research Briefs

In this research brief, Karbone discusses the background of Oregon’s RPS and provides an overview of the market prior to S.B. 1547. The report then addresses the implications of the new legislation on demand and supply fundamentals in the Oregon REC market.

New York ISO State of Mind: RECs, ZECs, and the Effects of the Clean Energy Standard

Ali Shajrawi Market Research Briefs

This past December, Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo directed the New York Public Service Commission (PSC) to design and enact a new Clean Energy Standard (CES), mandating that 50% of all electricity consumed in New York must come from a renewable energy source by 2030. The CES is the planned successor to the New York Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS), which expired at the end of February, 2016.

In the following research report, Karbone provides preliminary analysis of the potential impact this new market design will have on the renewable energy market outlook in New York. 

NEPOOL Class I RECs: Q3 2015 Data Release Update & the “Maine” Event

Ali Shajrawi Market Research Briefs

While NEPOOL Class I REC pricing saw a retreat in 2015 compared to 2014, prices for the spot vintages in all markets (except Maine) remained robust near their newly established low-$50sresistance level. NEPOOL Class I REC pricing tracked within 95% of their respective ACPs in 2013 and most of 2014, bringing into focus assumptions of persistent undersupply. Nevertheless, as REC generation increased in 2015, the NEPOOL Class I REC market became adequately supplied and REC prices pulled back.

NEPOOL Class I RECs Q2 2015 Data Release Update

Ali Shajrawi Market Research Briefs

NEPOOL Class I data showed continued generation growth across all states for almost all technologies. Generation in the most liquid markets of Massachusetts and Connecticut grew 12% and 19% in Q2 2015 over Q2 2014, respectively. New Hampshire saw the most quarter-on-quarter growth at 35%, while the less liquid Rhode Island grew 14% in Q2 ’15 against Q2’14.

NEPOOL Class I RECs: Racing in Reverse – Supply Decelerates More Than Demand

Ali Shajrawi Market Research Briefs

NEPOOL Class I data showed continued generation growth across all states and for almost all technologies. In the most liquid markets of Massachusetts and Connecticut, Class I REC generation in Q1 2015 grew 4.6% and 12.9% against Q1 2014, respectively. In addition, even the less liquid New Hampshire market supply grew considerably by 27% in Q1’15 over Q1’14. Class I REC generation increased slightly at 3.1% in Maine and 9.6% in Rhode Island. Nevertheless, Q1 year-on-year rates of growth have decreased significantly for most states across the board (excluding NH). While the absolute levels of RECs produced in Q1 has increased, harsh winter conditions seemed to affect per-MW productivity for most renewable technologies as generation fell below expectations given installed nameplate capacity.

NEPOOL Class I RECs Q1 2015 Data Release Update

Ali Shajrawi Market Research Briefs

NEPOOL Class I data showed continued generation growth across all states and for almost all technologies. In the most liquid markets of Massachusetts and Connecticut, Class I REC generation in Q1 2015 grew 4.6% and 12.9% against Q1 2014, respectively. In addition, even the less liquid New Hampshire market supply grew considerably by 27% in Q1’15 over Q1’14. Class I REC generation increased slightly at 3.1% in Maine and 9.6% in Rhode Island. Nevertheless, Q1 year-on-year rates of growth have decreased significantly for most states across the board (excluding NH). While the absolute levels of RECs produced in Q1 has increased, harsh winter conditions seemed to affect per-MW productivity for most renewable technologies as generation fell below expectations given installed nameplate capacity.

CA RPS: Market Outlook Compliance Period 2

Karbone Market Research Briefs

January 1, 2014 saw the official kick-off of Compliance Period 2 (“CP2”, 2014-2016) in the California Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) market. As the market gears up for this latest program phase, some highlights (and lessons learned) from the first Compliance Period have helped set the stage.

North Carolina Solar Market Update

Karbone Market Research Briefs

The current installed capacity according to North Carolina Renewable Energy Tracking System is 236 MW of solar PV and is forecast to reach 285 MW by year-end 2013. This capacity could generate 250,000 solar RECs in 2013, already surpassing the NC 2018 RPS solar target of 0.2%. Additionally, a 100 MW project in Duplin County is planned for construction in 2014, making it one of the largest solar farms to be built on the East Coast. According to SNL Financial, there are an estimated 800 MW or more of solar projects in advanced development or under construction in NC.