Greenlight for Renewable Incentives in Illinois

Ali Shajrawi, Liam Brooks Market Research Briefs

On April 3, the Illinois Commerce Commission (ICC) approved a final order that addresses several key issues of how the State will meet its ambitious renewable goals under the Long Term Procurement Plan (LTPP). The attached research brief provides an overview of the changes in the Final Order and their implications.

Arizona Proposals Mandate More Renewables

Ali Shajrawi, Liam Brooks Market Research Briefs

Arizona is setting out to diversify its fuel mix and promote more renewable energy adoption. This year, two proposals have been put forth to increase Arizona’s current Renewable Energy Standards (RES) target of 15% by 2025, which has already been met by the State’s obligated utilities.The attached research brief provides an overview of the initiatives and their challenges, as well as a cause for hope.

Banking Off of Low-Build Winds: “Tri”-ing to Project PJM Tier I Fundamentals

Ali Shajrawi, Liam Brooks Market Research Briefs

The PJM Tier I market tested its five-year price lows this past October before mounting a slow but impressive rebound through the first quarter of 2018. While there have been hiccups over the course of this relative recovery, the overall trajectory has been decidedly positive as underlying market fundamentals seem to making a case for forward price strength. Between low installation rates for new qualifying wind facilities, increasing RPS requirements, and ambitious clean energy legislation proposed across a number of states, there is reason to expect tightening supply/demand dynamics on the horizon. The following report details the drivers behind the recent PJM Tier I price resilience and the arguments for potential future appreciation.

Karbone Corporate PPA Research

Ali Shajrawi, Jonathan Burnston, Alexandra Wineholt In-depth Custom Research

The growing demand for renewable energy by corporate off-takers is fundamentally reshaping electric power sales in the United States. Over the past 3 years, approximately 7.8 GW of wind and solar power were contracted through non-utility corporate power purchase agreements (CPPAs). This trend is gathering pace with many more corporates announcing sustainability goals to procure most (and for some, 100%) of their current and forward electricity needs from renewable resources.

Oregon Trailing: New Name, Same Game

Ali Shajrawi, Vickie Pan Market Research Briefs

In this research brief, Karbone discusses the background of Oregon’s RPS and provides an overview of the market prior to S.B. 1547. The report then addresses the implications of the new legislation on demand and supply fundamentals in the Oregon REC market.

New York ISO State of Mind: RECs, ZECs, and the Effects of the Clean Energy Standard

Ali Shajrawi Market Research Briefs

This past December, Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo directed the New York Public Service Commission (PSC) to design and enact a new Clean Energy Standard (CES), mandating that 50% of all electricity consumed in New York must come from a renewable energy source by 2030. The CES is the planned successor to the New York Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS), which expired at the end of February, 2016.

In the following research report, Karbone provides preliminary analysis of the potential impact this new market design will have on the renewable energy market outlook in New York. 

NEPOOL Class I RECs: Q3 2015 Data Release Update & the “Maine” Event

Ali Shajrawi Market Research Briefs

While NEPOOL Class I REC pricing saw a retreat in 2015 compared to 2014, prices for the spot vintages in all markets (except Maine) remained robust near their newly established low-$50sresistance level. NEPOOL Class I REC pricing tracked within 95% of their respective ACPs in 2013 and most of 2014, bringing into focus assumptions of persistent undersupply. Nevertheless, as REC generation increased in 2015, the NEPOOL Class I REC market became adequately supplied and REC prices pulled back.

NEPOOL Class I RECs Q2 2015 Data Release Update

Ali Shajrawi Market Research Briefs

NEPOOL Class I data showed continued generation growth across all states for almost all technologies. Generation in the most liquid markets of Massachusetts and Connecticut grew 12% and 19% in Q2 2015 over Q2 2014, respectively. New Hampshire saw the most quarter-on-quarter growth at 35%, while the less liquid Rhode Island grew 14% in Q2 ’15 against Q2’14.

NEPOOL Class I RECs: Racing in Reverse – Supply Decelerates More Than Demand

Ali Shajrawi Market Research Briefs

NEPOOL Class I data showed continued generation growth across all states and for almost all technologies. In the most liquid markets of Massachusetts and Connecticut, Class I REC generation in Q1 2015 grew 4.6% and 12.9% against Q1 2014, respectively. In addition, even the less liquid New Hampshire market supply grew considerably by 27% in Q1’15 over Q1’14. Class I REC generation increased slightly at 3.1% in Maine and 9.6% in Rhode Island. Nevertheless, Q1 year-on-year rates of growth have decreased significantly for most states across the board (excluding NH). While the absolute levels of RECs produced in Q1 has increased, harsh winter conditions seemed to affect per-MW productivity for most renewable technologies as generation fell below expectations given installed nameplate capacity.

NEPOOL Class I RECs Q1 2015 Data Release Update

Ali Shajrawi Market Research Briefs

NEPOOL Class I data showed continued generation growth across all states and for almost all technologies. In the most liquid markets of Massachusetts and Connecticut, Class I REC generation in Q1 2015 grew 4.6% and 12.9% against Q1 2014, respectively. In addition, even the less liquid New Hampshire market supply grew considerably by 27% in Q1’15 over Q1’14. Class I REC generation increased slightly at 3.1% in Maine and 9.6% in Rhode Island. Nevertheless, Q1 year-on-year rates of growth have decreased significantly for most states across the board (excluding NH). While the absolute levels of RECs produced in Q1 has increased, harsh winter conditions seemed to affect per-MW productivity for most renewable technologies as generation fell below expectations given installed nameplate capacity.