Karbone Corporate PPA Research

Ali Shajrawi, Jonathan Burnston, Alexandra Wineholt In-depth Custom Research

The growing demand for renewable energy by corporate off-takers is fundamentally reshaping electric power sales in the United States. Over the past 3 years, approximately 7.8 GW of wind and solar power were contracted through non-utility corporate power purchase agreements (CPPAs). This trend is gathering pace with many more corporates announcing sustainability goals to procure most (and for some, 100%) of their current and forward electricity needs from renewable resources.

Oregon Trailing: New Name, Same Game

Ali Shajrawi, Vickie Pan Market Research Briefs

In this research brief, Karbone discusses the background of Oregon’s RPS and provides an overview of the market prior to S.B. 1547. The report then addresses the implications of the new legislation on demand and supply fundamentals in the Oregon REC market.

New York ISO State of Mind: RECs, ZECs, and the Effects of the Clean Energy Standard

Ali Shajrawi Market Research Briefs

This past December, Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo directed the New York Public Service Commission (PSC) to design and enact a new Clean Energy Standard (CES), mandating that 50% of all electricity consumed in New York must come from a renewable energy source by 2030. The CES is the planned successor to the New York Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS), which expired at the end of February, 2016.

In the following research report, Karbone provides preliminary analysis of the potential impact this new market design will have on the renewable energy market outlook in New York. 

MD SREC Market Update: Make Maryland Great Again?

Ali Shajrawi Market Research Briefs

A group of policy makers in Maryland gathered in December to draft a plan to expand and accelerate the state’s existing Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) program. Introduced as amendments to the Maryland Clean Energy Jobs Act of 2016, a draft of the proposal circulated in the marketplace early last month. On February 5th, S.B. 921 was introduced in the Senate, proposing to boostthe current RPS to a 25% goal by 2020 from the current mandate of 20% by 2022.

New Jersey SREC Market Update: NJ Puts on Its New Year’s Rally cap

Ali Shajrawi Market Research Briefs

New Jersey SREC pricing has reached four-year highs, recording levels not seen since December 2011. Breaking through what appeared to be 2015’s $250 resistance level in early November, front-of-the-curve pricing and liquidity have strengthened ostensibly through the end of the year and start of 2016. The first week of January saw EY2016 and EY2017 SRECs trade north of $290 before settling in the $285 context by the week’s end. In light of the considerable surplus of SRECs in circulation, this price rally seems to render the market paradoxical.

MA SREC II Market Update – No Bill, Full Caps, Can’t Build

Ali Shajrawi Market Research Briefs

After the recent failure of the Massachusetts legislature to pass a compromise bill to raise the net metering cap before winter recess, many projects are at risk of heading off a cliff. Coupled with the Investment Tax Credit (ITC) step-down from 30% to 10% for commercial projects, the delay in raising the net metering cap may jeopardize the installations of over 115 MW in 2016. In this Report, the Karbone Research Desk addresses the impact of these recent developments on the SREC-II market and discusses forward build rates scenarios, historical pricing trends, and the impact of legislative uncertainty on market fundamentals.

NEPOOL Class I RECs Q2 2015 Data Release Update

Ali Shajrawi Market Research Briefs

NEPOOL Class I data showed continued generation growth across all states for almost all technologies. Generation in the most liquid markets of Massachusetts and Connecticut grew 12% and 19% in Q2 2015 over Q2 2014, respectively. New Hampshire saw the most quarter-on-quarter growth at 35%, while the less liquid Rhode Island grew 14% in Q2 ’15 against Q2’14.

New Jersey SREC Market Update: No Summer Love for Solar Supply

Ali Shajrawi Market Research Briefs

Behind-The-Meter (BTM) installations continued to drive forward the New Jersey solar market, adding approximately 13 MW last month. July had no Direct Grid- Supply completions, contrary to NJCEP’s estimates of around 13 large-scale projects to be in service by July. New Jersey SREC levels experienced an uptick in price volatility in the first two months of Q3. RY 2015 and RY 2016 prices started the quarter in the mid-$230 area but ultimately traded in a range as wide as $20 since the start of July.

NEPOOL Class I RECs: Racing in Reverse – Supply Decelerates More Than Demand

Ali Shajrawi Market Research Briefs

NEPOOL Class I data showed continued generation growth across all states and for almost all technologies. In the most liquid markets of Massachusetts and Connecticut, Class I REC generation in Q1 2015 grew 4.6% and 12.9% against Q1 2014, respectively. In addition, even the less liquid New Hampshire market supply grew considerably by 27% in Q1’15 over Q1’14. Class I REC generation increased slightly at 3.1% in Maine and 9.6% in Rhode Island. Nevertheless, Q1 year-on-year rates of growth have decreased significantly for most states across the board (excluding NH). While the absolute levels of RECs produced in Q1 has increased, harsh winter conditions seemed to affect per-MW productivity for most renewable technologies as generation fell below expectations given installed nameplate capacity.

NEPOOL Class I RECs Q1 2015 Data Release Update

Ali Shajrawi Market Research Briefs

NEPOOL Class I data showed continued generation growth across all states and for almost all technologies. In the most liquid markets of Massachusetts and Connecticut, Class I REC generation in Q1 2015 grew 4.6% and 12.9% against Q1 2014, respectively. In addition, even the less liquid New Hampshire market supply grew considerably by 27% in Q1’15 over Q1’14. Class I REC generation increased slightly at 3.1% in Maine and 9.6% in Rhode Island. Nevertheless, Q1 year-on-year rates of growth have decreased significantly for most states across the board (excluding NH). While the absolute levels of RECs produced in Q1 has increased, harsh winter conditions seemed to affect per-MW productivity for most renewable technologies as generation fell below expectations given installed nameplate capacity.