New Jersey SRECs: BGS & Running of the Bulls

Karbone Market Research Briefs

NJ SREC pricing has appreciated to levels not witnessed since Q1 2012. Breaking past the $200/SREC threshold in the last weeks, forward vintage pricing and liquidity have strengthened ostensibly in advance of the state’s focal Basic Generation Service (BGS) Auction. With the Auction still over two months away however, questions remain as to how high the price rally will reach, and what other forces could be behind it.

New Jersey SRECs Q2 Wrap up & Q3 Outlook

Karbone Market Research Briefs

New Jersey SREC prices held steady throughout Q2 after rallying back from a post-BGS dip in the last week of Q1. RY 14-16 vintage values started Q2 in April at $180 and climbed to the $188 range by the end of May before settling back around $182 at the end of Q2 in June. With the start of Q3 however, prices have begun to fall off, with value for RY 14-16 vintages dropping to the mid-$160s range as of mid-July.

Major Changes in Store for Massachusetts Solar?

Karbone Market Research Briefs

On June 11th, key solar policy decision makers unveiled a Proposal that would radically transition solar incentives in Massachusetts away from the SREC market and towards a more feed-in-tariff type regime. The Proposal outlines a Declining Block Solar Incentive Program that would supplant much of the recently launched SREC II program. If implemented, we estimate that the SREC II market size could be reduced from roughly 1 GW to closer to 300 MW.

NJ SREC Market Update

Karbone Market Research Briefs

Large projects in the development pipeline have finally impacted the market as preliminary February installation numbers were estimated at 44.1 MW. Large-scale projects accounted for 32.6 MW of this volume and included a 10 MW Subsection Q project that had reached commercial operation in Q4 2013 and two behind-the-meter projects, one at 13.1 MW and another at 9.5 MW.

CA RPS: Market Outlook Compliance Period 2

Karbone Market Research Briefs

January 1, 2014 saw the official kick-off of Compliance Period 2 (“CP2”, 2014-2016) in the California Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) market. As the market gears up for this latest program phase, some highlights (and lessons learned) from the first Compliance Period have helped set the stage.

Deleware Renewable Market Overview

Karbone Market Research Briefs

This research will provide an overview of the Delaware renewable energy and power markets. Delaware Public Service Commission in 2012 established a competitive solicitation mechanism through Delmarva Power and Light, known as the Delaware SREC Procurement Program, which is acting as a price-setting tool in the market. The transition was part of Delmarva Power becoming the only compliance buyer of SRECs in the market. Winners are awarded a 20-year contract, with the accepted bid price covering the first 7 years and the remaining 13 years receiving $50 per SREC. The last round of the solicitation completed in May 2013 saw prices average in the $34 to $40 range for existing system, and $46 to $87 range for new systems.

North Carolina Solar Market Update

Karbone Market Research Briefs

The current installed capacity according to North Carolina Renewable Energy Tracking System is 236 MW of solar PV and is forecast to reach 285 MW by year-end 2013. This capacity could generate 250,000 solar RECs in 2013, already surpassing the NC 2018 RPS solar target of 0.2%. Additionally, a 100 MW project in Duplin County is planned for construction in 2014, making it one of the largest solar farms to be built on the East Coast. According to SNL Financial, there are an estimated 800 MW or more of solar projects in advanced development or under construction in NC.