PJM Capacity Performance: You mad, BRA?

Ali Shajrawi Market Research Briefs

To ensure the reliability of the Mid-Atlantic grid, earlier this year PJM instituted the Capacity Performance (CP) plan. This created a regime with higher capacity revenue expectations, accompanied by more rigorous plant performance criteria and greater penalty payments. Given the 2018/2019 Base Residual Auction (BRA) results, how well has the CP achieved its goals? Can similar results be expected in future auctions? What are the broader market implications from the CP program change? In the quiet between the storm of PJM auctions this summer and end of year EFOR-D assessments, Karbone’s Research Group and Power Market Brokerage Desk have taken the opportunity to explore these considerations below.

New Jersey SRECs: BGS & Running of the Bulls

Karbone Market Research Briefs

NJ SREC pricing has appreciated to levels not witnessed since Q1 2012. Breaking past the $200/SREC threshold in the last weeks, forward vintage pricing and liquidity have strengthened ostensibly in advance of the state’s focal Basic Generation Service (BGS) Auction. With the Auction still over two months away however, questions remain as to how high the price rally will reach, and what other forces could be behind it.

MISO Capacity: the Capitulation of Coal

Karbone Market Research Briefs

MISO Capacity pricing has rallied across the board in bilateral markets as a combination of coal retirements and ISO exports threaten capacity deficits by ~2016. In anticipation of these impending shortages, bilateral capacity forward pricing in select zones has already appreciated to levels at or near those in PJM. Karbone expects this trend to continue in the short and mid-term. The following research brief analyzes the primary drivers of this market behavior and outlines potential directional movements.

New Jersey SRECs Q2 Wrap up & Q3 Outlook

Karbone Market Research Briefs

New Jersey SREC prices held steady throughout Q2 after rallying back from a post-BGS dip in the last week of Q1. RY 14-16 vintage values started Q2 in April at $180 and climbed to the $188 range by the end of May before settling back around $182 at the end of Q2 in June. With the start of Q3 however, prices have begun to fall off, with value for RY 14-16 vintages dropping to the mid-$160s range as of mid-July.

NJ SREC Market Update

Karbone Market Research Briefs

Large projects in the development pipeline have finally impacted the market as preliminary February installation numbers were estimated at 44.1 MW. Large-scale projects accounted for 32.6 MW of this volume and included a 10 MW Subsection Q project that had reached commercial operation in Q4 2013 and two behind-the-meter projects, one at 13.1 MW and another at 9.5 MW.

Deleware Renewable Market Overview

Karbone Market Research Briefs

This research will provide an overview of the Delaware renewable energy and power markets. Delaware Public Service Commission in 2012 established a competitive solicitation mechanism through Delmarva Power and Light, known as the Delaware SREC Procurement Program, which is acting as a price-setting tool in the market. The transition was part of Delmarva Power becoming the only compliance buyer of SRECs in the market. Winners are awarded a 20-year contract, with the accepted bid price covering the first 7 years and the remaining 13 years receiving $50 per SREC. The last round of the solicitation completed in May 2013 saw prices average in the $34 to $40 range for existing system, and $46 to $87 range for new systems.

North Carolina Solar Market Update

Karbone Market Research Briefs

The current installed capacity according to North Carolina Renewable Energy Tracking System is 236 MW of solar PV and is forecast to reach 285 MW by year-end 2013. This capacity could generate 250,000 solar RECs in 2013, already surpassing the NC 2018 RPS solar target of 0.2%. Additionally, a 100 MW project in Duplin County is planned for construction in 2014, making it one of the largest solar farms to be built on the East Coast. According to SNL Financial, there are an estimated 800 MW or more of solar projects in advanced development or under construction in NC.