RGGI Market Update: Auction 29 Sparks Trading

Ali Shajrawi Market Research Briefs

The twenty-ninth Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) auction cleared at $6.02 amid sufficient demand well above the Cost Containment Reserve (CCR) trigger price of $6 per allowance. Before the auction, market participants were uncertain whether the clearing price would trigger the CCR provision and allow for the sale of 10 million allowances in addition to the initial cap offering of 15,374,294 allowances. Announcement of the full release of 2015 CCR allowances indicated mixed implications for forward supply and demand scenarios. With the market appearing to be oversupplied by almost 139 million allowances by the end of 2014, many are wondering what is causing the sufficient demand above the $6.00/tCO2 CCR trigger price, and to what extent the release of the CCR volume will impact forward market scenarios. The Karbone Research Desk addresses market fundamentals, pricing, and forward market balance concerns in this report.